Wrinkles and Warming: The Intersection of Aging & Climate Change

The 21st century presents opportunities and challenges, but two major global issues are becoming increasingly prominent: aging populations and the climate crisis. Both are individually complex and multifaceted — but are also intertwined. That intersection gives rise to a whole host of additional pressing considerations that cannot be ignored.

This essay explores how aging populations are more vulnerable to climate change and how longer lifespans and growing healthcare needs impact the climate. We then discuss potential ways to meet the needs of both the elderly and the planet.

What Demographics Tell Us About Aging Populations

We are experiencing an unprecedented trend in the global population: in 2020, the number of people aged 60 and older outnumbered children younger than five years. And by 2050, one in six people will be over 65, up from one in 11 in 2019.

Populations are aging faster than ever due to two key factors: birth rates are dropping, and people are living longer thanks to better healthcare. Countries like Japan, Germany, and Italy already have over 20% of their populations aged 65 and up, and almost all countries in Asia Pacific are grappling with aging populations. Shifts towards older populations are also taking place in developing regions like Latin America and the Caribbean. Northern Africa, Western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to experience the fastest growth in the number of older people over the next three decades. The UN predicts that by 2050, 22% of the global population will be 60 or older — a whopping 2 billion people.

An aging population significantly impacts a country, affecting everything from the job market to healthcare systems and social services. Japan, the world's oldest population (more than 1 in 10 people are over 80 years old), is a prime example. While many countries face declining birth rates, Japan experiences an additional driver: a long history of longevity. The country’s aging population is profoundly impacting its economy, workforce, and society, most notably contributing to its sky-high public health expenditure and enduring economic recession.

Although it should be celebrated that social and economic development has allowed us to live longer, healthier lives, the consequences of our longevity cannot be ignored. Current rates of global aging imply that the number of countries immediately concerned by population aging will increase significantly from 96 in 2020 to 147 in 2050 – that is, more than three-quarters of all countries and around 87% of the global population. This phenomenon will substantially alter economies, social structures, and the environment. Crucially, aging populations are also highly vulnerable to the dangers of our already unpredictable climate.

Why Aging Populations Are More Vulnerable to Climate Change

In recent years, the planet has become all too familiar with the adverse effects of climate change, including alarming increases in the frequency of severe weather events. And with unceasing GHG emissions, the state of the climate is only worsening. While climate change’s disastrous effects have implications for everybody, older people are disproportionately susceptible to them. There are several reasons for this:

1. Their bodies can't handle extreme weather as well. Older adults often have health issues that make heat waves, cold snaps, and natural disasters even more dangerous. Older bodies aren't as good at regulating temperature, making heat waves more dangerous and deadly.

2. For many seniors, money is tight. Living on a fixed income makes it difficult to adapt to climate impacts: they might need help to afford air conditioning during a heatwave or fix up their homes after a storm. This money crunch, combined with their heightened health risks, puts much pressure on public healthcare spending.

3. Getting around takes more work. Many older people have trouble moving around, making evacuating difficult during emergencies. If they live alone or in care homes, getting them to safety is even trickier. As extreme weather becomes more common, less mobile seniors face higher risks of injury or death. Additionally, many emergency preparedness and response systems are currently unprepared for the added burden of evacuating aged populations despite the mounting pressure to adapt to a changing demographic situation.

4. Seniors might need more support systems. As people age, their social circles often shrink. This leaves many elderly folks without support systems to help them cope with and recover from climate-related events. It's another challenge for public health and emergency services as they try to help older populations bounce back after disasters.

The accelerating pace of climate change underscores the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to mitigate their far-reaching impacts, especially on our most vulnerable populations.

How Aging Populations Impact the Climate

Every person, through their activities and consumption habits, places an individual burden on the climate. Everything from our diets, commuting habits, and heating or cooling needs for our homes has an environmental price tag.

Of course, our levels of resource consumption don’t stay the same across our lifetimes — our needs and wants evolve as we age. Studies show that consumption levels decrease after retirement due to lower non-essential consumption, lower activity levels, reduced demand for private transportation, and changes to our diets.

But we must also consider the fact that older adults often require more healthcare: nearly 95% of them have one chronic condition, and 80% have two or more. Healthcare is resource-intensive, and demand for it has only been rising worldwide, driven partly by aging populations. The direct consequence is structural growth in global healthcare spending, which is expected to increase by 4% per year for the foreseeable future.

Although older people may have smaller environmental footprints, longer lifespans mean they’re still consuming for more extended periods and requiring healthcare support for longer periods. It’s undeniably a triumph of modern medicine and nutrition that we’re living longer; and yet we need to be mindful of how our increasing longevity affects the environment, and plan appropriately.

Longevity in a Climate-Changed World

To combat the challenges of aging populations, many countries have implemented pro-natalist policies to boost the declining total fertility rate (TFR), but with limited success. Reversing TFR decline has proven challenging, with very few countries achieving significant and sustained success after having historically low birth rates. France and Sweden are often cited as countries that (briefly) managed to stabilize or slightly increase their fertility rates, though not to the minimum replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

These countries have implemented comprehensive family-friendly policies, including generous parental leave, subsidized childcare, and financial incentives for families. The complexity of reversing TFR decline is underscored by the multifaceted nature of fertility decisions, which are influenced by societal attitudes and opportunities.

Rapid and profound demographic transitions compound the difficulty of reversing the historical declines in fertility many countries have undergone. The persistent decline in TFR across diverse cultures and economies suggests that broader societal shifts, such as increased education and career opportunities for women, changing attitudes towards family size, and economic uncertainties, play a significant role in fertility decisions that are not easily influenced by government policies.

Addressing TFR alone, however, does not solve the issue of there simply being more people living longer. Preparing for an aging population in a climate-changed world requires a multifaceted approach. Two key aspects of this include:

Technological advancements

Innovations like telemedicine make certain forms of healthcare available for older adults no matter where they live, expanding healthcare access without the need for emissions-intensive infrastructure and transportation. Other tech, like wearable fitness trackers, act as preventative measures by encouraging physical activity, while smart home technologies enhance safety and comfort for older people. Smart home tech can also alert caregivers and loved ones in accidents or medical emergencies.

Wearable devices and sensors can track vital signs and medication adherence, allowing healthcare providers to monitor patients remotely. This proactive approach can prevent unnecessary hospital visits and travel emissions, aiding in managing chronic conditions and early detection of potential health issues.

Urban planning

As populations age, thoughtful urban planning becomes crucial for creating a more sustainable and livable environment for older adults: we need to build age-friendly and eco-friendly cities. Designing walkable communities encourages older adults to stay active, cuts down on car use, and reduces emissions.

Adding green spaces encourages physical activity and lowers ambient temperatures during heat waves, reducing energy and acting as a carbon sink. Promoting biodiversity, capturing airborne pollutants and heat stress, and improving air quality are other benefits of greening a space.

Access to amenities, accessible public transportation, and energy-efficient housing are crucial, but we cannot forget the importance of social infrastructure and community support for age-friendly neighborhoods.

Conclusion

The relationship between aging populations and climate change is multifaceted, and this blog post only brushes the surface of the issue.

Technology and thoughtful urban planning offer significant opportunities to address this challenge in a way that not only meets the needs of aging populations but also safeguards the environment — or, at the very least, minimizes the environmental impact of our newfound longevity.

By harnessing the power of innovation and focusing on environmental and social well-being, we can create a more sustainable and resilient future for our aging populations in the face of climate change.

Many thanks to Amasia Summer 2024 Fellow, Sara Goh, for supporting the research and writing that went into this essay.